China Faces a Perilous Transition

China is one of the great success stories of the past half-century. But the export-driven formula that has worked so well for 30+ years is showing signs of weakness. Furthermore, it’s becoming increasingly clear that China can’t escape the realities imposed by demography. So, just as Japan faced its demographic day of reckoning in the ‘90s and Europe is currently facing its own crisis, China will come face-to-face with demographic reality a decade from now. China also faces horrendous environmental issues that will create long-term public health implications. However, China seems to lack a governance structure with the needed flexibility to deal with these challenges. So the questions are, “How will China deal with the coming stresses? Will it be able to effectively transition to a new era? What will this mean for the global economy?” We’ll explain.

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